After a topsy-turvy 2020, intermodal volume should bounce back with 7.3% growth in international containers and a 4.7% gain in domestic volume, according to the TTX forecast.
Last year intermodal volume was down 2% overall in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico due to the economic impact of the pandemic. Intermodal volume declined sharply in the spring at the onset of the pandemic, then came roaring back in the second half of the year.
The TTX growth forecast assumes continued economic stimulus and recovery, along with a diminishing economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. reaching herd immunity later this year.
A shortage of truck drivers will continue to help divert highway business to intermodal. Pandemic-related restrictions on truck driving schools have reduced the number of new drivers in the pipeline by as much as 40%, while tougher new drug and alcohol testing is sidelining 4,000 drivers per month.
The TTX panel expects several intermodal trends to continue this year, including the shift of international business from the West Coast to ports on the East and Gulf coasts, outsized growth in parcel shipments due to surging e-commerce demand, and the decline of trailers used in intermodal service.
TTX also expects a more drawn-out peak intermodal season this year.
The shape of the traditional peak intermodal season, which runs from August through November as retailers stock up for holiday shopping, is changing, says John Woodcock, director of market development at TTX.
Online retailers are offering deals earlier in the fall and the rise of gift cards pushes off some purchasing until after Christmas. Both trends stretch out peak demand. Growth in e-commerce also is fueling increased return of gifts, which can push stronger shipping demand well into January, further lengthening and flattening the peak season.
